Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 32.811332 35.313610 38.025914 41.204668 44.854693 48.947866 53.933029
2025-06-08 28.535671 31.765646 35.478918 40.130249 45.900779 52.968817 62.525895
2025-06-15 26.978255 30.777525 35.340480 41.359816 49.316453 59.841531 75.545657
2025-06-22 25.270221 29.321924 34.339892 41.213389 50.746260 64.153891 85.912084
2025-06-29 23.702853 27.854049 33.116138 40.537638 51.234196 67.068081 94.744663
2025-07-06 22.224845 26.365207 31.706178 39.409644 50.853710 68.513842 101.407076
2025-07-13 21.768372 26.152141 31.942199 40.555082 53.909289 75.813542 120.846961
2025-07-20 21.246263 25.801141 31.940645 41.324434 56.448228 82.726085 142.443843
2025-07-27 20.691035 25.360040 31.764992 41.791530 58.527823 89.229553 166.452097
2025-08-03 19.985512 24.665525 31.171371 41.544458 59.341871 93.461391 187.191865
2025-08-10 19.200833 23.817864 30.299350 40.776185 59.131035 95.551776 203.177160
2025-08-17 18.480279 23.026450 29.463760 39.996725 58.800745 97.317303 219.497526
2025-08-24 17.824565 22.315257 28.733039 39.373264 58.765026 99.927727 241.959675
2025-08-31 17.117904 21.503975 27.814202 38.376915 57.922746 100.543144 257.784826
2025-09-07 16.992777 21.525464 28.154139 39.517027 61.368678 112.488763 341.005066
2025-09-14 16.574344 21.096852 27.773859 39.381344 62.227416 118.085815 404.044859
2025-09-21 16.072950 20.525477 27.141782 38.754857 61.983387 120.593732 454.038137
2025-09-28 15.508747 19.841517 26.303477 37.707931 60.731516 119.904660 479.402959
2025-10-05 15.438251 19.891432 26.627284 38.771036 64.201540 134.666722 716.175112
2025-10-12 15.295005 19.823952 26.756341 39.484243 67.007324 148.748246 1114.852724
2025-10-19 15.102186 19.672211 26.738458 39.916924 69.228717 162.018624 1866.965251
2025-10-26 14.792731 19.329709 26.389623 39.688087 69.810477 169.339665 2903.115103
2025-11-02 14.408455 18.859886 25.810846 38.976072 69.100213 171.092542 3932.084823